Hi All,
After Tuesday’s runoff elections in Georgia, the 2018 Midterms have finally come to a close. What initially looked like a solid Democratic showing turned into a full-scale rout as Democrats picked up more and more seats (especially in Southern California) in the days and weeks following Election Day.
Final Disappointment in Georgia
First, I want to get back to Georgia – the state I think gave us some of the most interesting developments in the entire election cycle. Lucy McBath was able to defeat Karen Handel in the same district that Jon Ossoff lost (after spending $25 million) in 2017. Carolyn Bourdeaux came close to knocking off Rob Woodall in the GA-7, a race that few pundits considered competitive until the last couple of weeks. And finally, Stacey Abrams and other statewide Democratic candidates got closer to victory than they had in more than 15 years.
However, last night’s Republican victory in the runoffs for Secretary of State and Public Service Commissioner reminded many Georgia voters (myself included), how successful the GOP is at getting out their voters in every single election. Though Abrams – who did not get close enough to advance to a runoff in her race – campaigned for both candidates who were still on the ballot, excitement and turnout seemed to fall off a cliff in the state.
This is not to say that any of that was Abrams’ fault, but it does make one question the viability of these “celebrity candidates” like Abrams, Andrew Gillum, and Beto O’Rourke. Not only were these candidates unable to win their own races, it is unclear if they will be able to turn out their voters when they are not on the ballot themselves.
For what it’s worth, President Obama had the same problem in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. As I have discussed in N4N before, Democratic down-ballot performance was atrocious during Obama’s term – so the party really needs to come up with a new voter engagement strategy if it plans on having any long-term viability. As has been shown since President Obama’s rise in 2008, celebrity candidates only seem to help (sometimes) when said celebrity is on the ballot.
When discussing the results with my friends, one of them relayed an old political cliché that I think is more true now than ever before: “Democrats fall in love; Republicans fall in line.”
One interesting nugget about her loss in Georgia was that Stacey Abrams immediately became the front-runner for the Democratic nomination to take on David Perdue in the 2020 Senate race. Perdue has been one of Trump’s most dependable allies in the Senate, and Georgia has cooled to Trump faster than almost any state in the South. Throw in a competitive Presidential race, and Abrams really could make it a close contest.
Sweet Home Alabama (Senate Seat)
Okay, enough about Georgia, and on to its western neighbor – Alabama. When Trump fired Jeff Sessions in November, the immediate consensus was that he would try to regain his seat in the Senate by taking on Doug Jones in 2020. Remember, Jones won the right to complete out Sessions’ term in his special election victory over Roy Moore.
Jones will definitely be one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate in 2020, and any Republican not named Roy Moore will likely start with an advantage in the race. Sessions has said that he has no interest in returning to the Senate at this time – but look no further than Senator-elect Romney and you will see that just because someone says they are done with politics doesn’t necessarily mean that they are actually done with politics.
If he does run, and is elected – it would make for a fascinating dynamic between Sessions and the White House if Trump is re-elected
One thing to remember is that the Senate map in 2020 will be less favorable to Republicans than it was in 2018. Their chances at keeping the majority will hinge on being able to hold onto seats in states that have been growing more favorable to Democrats (like North Carolina, Colorado, and Maine), while also making up for their 2017 loss in Alabama.
Alabama Republicans might want to steer clear of having a Republican nominee for the seat who is known to have a complicated relationship with Trump – something that could hurt Sessions’ chances if he does end up running.
Wisconsin/Michigan
One of the most depressing outcomes of this election has been the reemergence of a Republican strategy that was first deployed in North Carolina after the 2016 election.
All three states followed the same trend: after decades of Democratic dominance, Republicans swept the legislature and most of the statewide elected positions – establishing huge majorities and redrawing district lines to ensure continued relevance. Later, Democrats were able to were able to regain the Governor’s mansions (NC in 2016, then WI and MI 2018), but the strong Republican Legislative majorities were still in tact. The Legislatures in all of these states then worked on stripping as much power as possible from the Governors before the Democrats take office.
It’s truly sad that Legislators are completely ignoring the obvious will of the voters in these states, but it’s even sadder that Democrats still do not have a comprehensive plan to regain their Obama-era losses in State Legislatures. As I said at the beginning of this post, Democratic excitement over specific candidates will amount to very little if they fail to win back some of these down ballot races.
Those who believe that some of these chambers are simply out of reach for Democrats to win should look at the fact that the party just won a strong majority in the U.S. House by competing in districts that were specifically drawn to benefit Republicans.
If Democrat Abigail Spanberger was able to knock off David Brat in a district that was considered “too conservative” for Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014, then I see no reason why any State Legislative chamber should be written off as unwinnable.
Anyways that’s it for this note… Remember – all posts are archived to the website, www.notfournothin.com, so feel free to check that out and share posts on social media!
Thanks as always for reading!
Tyler
(Sources: Politico, the New York Times, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, CNN, and MSNBC)
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