Hi All,
Welcome back to Not 4 Nothin!
I apologize for the hiatus in writing these posts, but things were a little crazy leading up to the Midterms. I’m looking forward to getting back into a regular pattern as we work on dissecting what last night’s results will mean going forward.
This post is going to focus on two main things: how the 2018 Midterms were good for Democrats, and how they were bad for Democrats. Make no mistake, I think overall last night was a net positive for the party, but there are still some things that make me somewhat nervous going forward.
How Last Night Was Good
The bad thing about most pollsters predicting a Democratic takeover of the House was that it somewhat diluted the accomplishment. The fact that Democrats were able to take a majority (and a majority that is likely growing, as votes in California are still being counted) is an incredible achievement.
Remember, most of these districts were redrawn by Republican legislatures after the 2010 census with the specific goal of making them difficult to lose. Democrats were able to overcome that huge disadvantage and flip seats in incredibly conservative districts, something that few people thought possible after the Tea Party election of 2010. Furthermore, the Democrats finally had some success winning races in between the coasts. Districts in Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah and Arizona all flipped from Republican to Democrat – a sign of how last night’s successes were not confined to typical Democratic strongholds.
One huge victory for Democrats was in the Kansas Governor’s race where Laura Kelly was able to pull off an upset over Kris Kobach – the former head of Trump’s “Voter Fraud” Commission. Kobach was weighed down by his association to the incredibly unpopular former Republican Governor of the state – Sam Brownback. A congressional pickup by Democrat Sharice Davids in the 3rd District showed that after years of virtual invisibility – Kansas Dems are slowly making a comeback.
Last night was also big for the Democrats because it furthered a realignment that has been accelerating under Trump. The wealthy, highly educated suburbs are looking more and more like they are becoming a very strong wall for Democrats. Suburban districts outside of LA, Chicago and Atlanta all supplied multiple pickups for the party.
Furthermore, Democrats were able to make a strong showing in the three states that led to Trump’s election: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Overall, I think last night set the Democrats up for a strong showing in 2020 if they are able to hang on to those voters in the midwest. I can hear everyone groaning about me discussing the 2020 election already, but hey it’s only 727 days away…
How Last Night Was Bad
Since I have been writing these posts, I have always said that this was going to be a difficult year for Senate Democrats. They had to defend too many seats without having enough potential pickup opportunities. The sad fact is that confirmation battles for judges and cabinet positions are going to get a lot easier for Republicans with a wider margin (the era of Murkowski and Collins having immense power is over).
Moving on from the Senate, last night saw Democratic dreams shattered in Governor’s races in Georgia and Florida. Now, there were so many voting irregularities in Georgia, that lawsuits and recounts will likely delay a final certification for a few days – but I just don’t think there are enough outstanding and uncounted votes for Stacey Abrams for her to force a runoff in this race (there will be other runoffs in Georgia, but more on that in a bit…).
Unfortunately for the Democrats, there was no clear answer to the question on whether or not the progressive wing of the party performs better in general elections than the more moderate wing. People point to Stacey Abrams and Beto O’Rourke outperforming past Democratic candidates, but as I have said before (quoting my brother Brian): “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.” No matter how much of a “rockstar” Beto is, he was still a Democrat in favor of impeaching Trump and abolishing ICE running for a statewide seat in Texas.
Democrats will now have to have difficult discussions about what their approach on Trump should look like. Now that they have the majority in the House, they must be careful to avoid overplaying their hand. The voters do not like dysfunction, and Democrats will be punished in 2020 if their party’s main platform is opposing Trump without offering alternative visions on specific policies. Remember how Newt Gingrich drastically overestimated the public’s support for his endless investigations of Bill Clinton – it really hurt Republicans and helped Clinton win reelection in 1996.
Last night was a good victory, but so were the 2006 Midterms. That majority only lasted until 2010, a cycle that I’m sure Nancy Pelosi remembers – and one I know she will work hard to prevent from repeating.
Extra Innings In Georgia
Last night’s elections in Georgia were near and dear to my heart. I’ve lived in the Atlanta area for six years, and have been pretty involved in politics here. Partisan politics aside, the fact that the sitting Secretary of State (and now presumptive Governor-elect) was actively suppressing minority votes is an absolute embarrassment.
If this election taught us anything in Georgia, it’s that the Secretary of State’s office needs some major reforms. Luckily for voters here, the 2018 race for the position appears to be heading for a runoff between Democrat John Barrow and Republican Brad Raffensperger on December 4.
Barrow has a long history of being a moderate Democrat capable of reaching across the aisle. When he was in Congress, Republicans redrew his district three separate times before finally making his district so Republican-heavy that he lost his seat in 2014. Assuming Kemp ends up beating Abrams, I think it might be good to have some sort of check on the GOP, and electing Barrow in the runoff could do just that. My hope is that enthusiasm will remain high for the runoff, especially with the importance of the Secretary of State being made so clear over the past few months.
That’s it for this post – as I said now that work will be calming down, I will be able to devote more and more time to Not 4 Nothin over the next few months. One thing is certain, just because the elections are over doesn’t mean things are going to be boring in politics…
In the time I have been writing this post, Trump officially fired Jeff Sessions – setting up a major clash with the Mueller investigation right as it heads towards its most important phase. Democrats will be taking over every single committee in the House – and will likely start to use their new subpoena powers immediately. And, over the next 4-6 months we will likely see the first Democrats announce that they are running for President.
For the record, Hillary Clinton announced she was running for President on April 12, 2015 when she was facing no real competition for the nomination. Since the primaries are wide open this coming cycle, candidates will likely announce earlier than she did.
But, that’s for another post. Thank you all for reading and remember to encourage friends and family to subscribe! I’ll be cross posting these notes on the website: www.notfournothin.com, so feel free to share the link on social media.
Thanks,
Tyler
(Sources: CNN, Politico, the New York Times, and the Washington Post)
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