Hi All,
I know it’s been over a month since my last post, but I do have some exciting updates to share about Not 4 Nothin! First and foremost, we (finally) have a website!
My hope is that readers will be able to use the website to scroll through past posts, as well as share Not 4 Nothin over social media. Special thanks to Rachel for her web mastery, I certainly would not have been able to do it without your help. I hope everyone enjoys the new site!
For the time being, I will continue to send out posts in the bodies of emails, but at some point I will shift towards sending out the link when a new post is ready.
Today’s episode will cover two main subjects: the ongoing drama surrounding the Kavanaugh nomination, and the effect that will have on the midterms.
Kavanaugh
It has been an incredible about-face for Brett Kavanaugh. Up until Dr. Ford’s allegation was published, Republicans had been doing a great job steering him through the confirmation process. He looked polished, smart, and (most importantly) mainstream in his hearings. He had held his own under blistering questioning from Democrats, and it really looked as though he was going to sail through confirmation – with many red-state Democratic Senators supporting his appointment to the Supreme Court.
Flash forward just one week, and his nomination is truly in peril. Thursday will be a monumental day in the history of the Supreme Court, and it will likely bear a striking resemblance to the Anita Hill testimony in 1991.
I’ll get back to the direct electoral implications of the accusations against Kavanaugh later on in this post, but for now I want to discuss where his nomination will go from here (with the obvious caveat that these are serious and troubling accusations, and there are way more important issues here than politics…).
At the very least, these accusations give the red state Democrats up who are up for reelection this year cover to vote against his confirmation. Before this all came to light, senators like Jon Tester, Claire McCaskill, Joe Donnelly, Heidi Heitkamp, and Joe Manchin were under tremendous pressure to vote for Kavanaugh.
The issues now will likely give these endangered senators the ability to explain their potential “nays” as matters of principle not politics. Moreover, these allegations now give Senators Murkowski and Collins more reason to vote against Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
Make no mistake, Kavanaugh’s confirmation is very much in trouble. If he performs poorly in his testimony on Thursday, Senate Republicans might begin to feel that his confirmation is more trouble than it’s worth – and might ask President Trump to withdraw the nomination.
That would be an incredibly embarrassing spectacle for Trump and Mitch McConnell, so that is obviously an unlikely scenario. However, I would think it is more likely that Kavanaugh’s nomination is withdrawn (either by himself or the President) than his nomination coming up for a vote and losing.
A withdrawal would be embarrassing enough, but actually losing a confirmation on the Senate floor could possibly mark the end of McConnell’s tenure, the Republican majorities in both houses, and even the GOP’s consistent support for President Trump.
Remember, Trump’s alliance with his party’s leadership and its crucial evangelical base has always been uneasy. The main thing that has been holding this marriage together has been Trump’s ability to follow instructions and appoint conservative judges – and the Republicans’ ability to confirm those nominees.
If Trump fails to alter the Supreme Court in a way that seemed likely up until last week, evangelicals might begin to wonder if all of this is worth it just to be allied with someone who has an approval rating that has been hovering in the high 30s.
I’m not saying that Trump will lose all support in the evangelical movement, but I would not be surprised if we start to see just some slight cracking in a base that has been pretty solid until now.
Effect on the Midterms
The odd thing is that while a defeat or withdrawal of the nomination could hurt Republicans chances of keeping the Senate majority, a continuation of this process has the chance of hurting Republicans running in the House.
I have talked at length in Not 4 Nothin about the vulnerable red-state Senate Democrats running for reelection in states that Trump won by wide margins. Toppling these incumbents will require a combination of an excited conservative base in those states, coupled with independents voting to oust the Democrats.
If a Republican-led Senate is so dysfunctional that it can’t even confirm what many in the right-wing is a qualified judge, then it may hamper their enthusiasm. Remember, it just takes a few thousand voters deciding to stay home to drastically change the outcome of an election. Just look at what happened when Democrats were less enthusiastic about voting in 2010 and 2014.
For that reason, look for Senate Republicans to keep pushing Kavanaugh no matter what happens during Thursday’s testimony. But, as they keep plowing through this confirmation process, they risk hurting their party’s chances in the lower chamber.
During the Hill testimony, Republicans came off as chauvinistic and dismissive towards women – which was a major factor leading up to Bill Clinton’s drubbing of President Bush in 1992, as well as tons of women running for office that cycle.
Suburban women are the demographic that will likely determine which party ends up controlling the House. They live in wealthier districts right outside large and mid-sized cities. These are voters who were fine with Mitt Romney, but have moved away from Trump because of his divisive and insult-driven brand of politics.
The GOP runs the risk of further alienating this important voting bloc if they come off as unsympathetic or dismissive towards Dr. Ford (which many people are saying is one of the main reasons that the Judiciary Committee hired a female prosecutor to question her).
There is also the school of thought that Senate Republicans feel that having Kavanaugh on the Court is worth sacrificing the House Majority. Remember, he’s only 53 – so he has the chance to establish a firm conservative majority for decades.
Thursday Will Be One of the Most Consequential Days of Trump’s Presidency
One story that has not really been covered as much is that the government will run out of money on Friday unless a spending package is passed by both the House and the Senate and signed by President Trump.
The Senate has already passed a bill, and the House is set to vote on it later today. The White House has signaled that the President will sign it, but he is known for changing his mind at the last minute.
He publicly regretted signing the last spending bill – since it provided almost no money for his wall along the southern border. This bill will allocate more money for border security, but nowhere near what’s necessary to build the wall.
Congressional leaders have promised Trump that they will propose bills funding the wall in its entirety after the election IF he signs this spending package to avoid a shutdown less than 40 days before the midterms.
But, Trump (like everyone), realizes that Republicans might not have the ability to move legislation at all after Election Day. There is already a movement in the conservative wing of the party to try to get Trump to veto this bill and shut down the government until he gets money for his wall.
It’s also possible that Trump vetoes the spending package in an attempt to move on from what could be an embarrassing defeat regarding Kavanaugh’s nomination. I really wouldn’t put it past him to shut down the government if he feels that tomorrow’s Kavanaugh hearings aren’t going well?
Another news story that Trump could create to distract from Kavanaugh if it turns into a disaster is firing Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. Rosenstein is currently leading the Justice Department in all matters related to the Russia Investigation, so that would certainly be a major story if he’s fired/resigns.
Rosenstein got in hot water with the President when the New York Times reported that he had made statements about surreptitiously recording Trump and using the recordings to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove him from office.
Rosenstein denied the report, but this could be a convenient excuse for his firing – something that House Republicans have been clamoring for over the past few months.
Conclusion
It’s tough to say whether or not Kavanaugh will end up serving on the Supreme Court – as of now I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being confirmed, but we’ll see what happens after tomorrow’s testimony.
As always, focus on Senators Murkowski and Collins – they will be the deciding votes on this, and will likely vote in a bloc. However, it’s always possible that one of the frequent Trump foils like Jeff Flake or Bob Corker will suddenly decide they have a spine and throw one final middle finger towards the President.
Thanks as always for reading! Remember to visit www.NotFourNothin.com to catch up on past episodes. Also feel free to share the link on your various social media platforms!
Thanks,
Tyler
Not 4 Nothin 