Hi All,
Today’s post is going to be a little different than in the past (and not just because I we are unveiling a new n4N logo!). I wanted to provide a quick recap of today’s news in the political world, and the ramifications of these events on the future of President Trump. Make no mistake about it – today is one of those days that will be discussed in textbooks for years to come.
Manafort
First and foremost, Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort was found guilty on 8 out of the 18 crimes that he had been charged with. The jury deadlocked on the remaining counts – so the judge, T. S. Ellis (who has faced tons of criticism about his handling of the case), declared a mistrial on those charges. This verdict came after weeks of speculation that Manafort might be acquitted.
In the limited questions that Trump took from reporters en route to West Virginia, he continued to claim that none of the crimes Manafort was convicted of were committed while he worked for the Trump campaign – and that Manafort had long been a fixture in Republican politics, so Trump bore no responsibility for deciding to hire him in the first place. To a certain extent, he’s right – none of these crimes were committed while Manafort worked for Trump or while Trump was even a candidate.
BUT at the end of the day, the President’s former Campaign Chairman was convicted on 8 counts – and now faces decades behind bars.
Because Trump is Trump, people immediately began speculating that the President would pardon Manafort. This is definitely a possibility, but don’t forget that Manafort faces even more charges in a second trial due to start next month – as well as a whole slate of state charges that could be filed if he does wind up getting pardoned.
Cohen
On any other day, the Manafort conviction would be the most important story and absolutely dominate the news cycle. But, Trump and his people weren’t done. At exactly the same time the Manafort verdict was being announced, Trump’s former personal attorney and fixer – Michael Cohen – was pleading guilty to 8 separate felonies ranging from tax evasion to coordinating illegal campaign contributions.
The pleas on the campaign finance charges were the real stunner because Cohen directly implicated then-Candidate Trump in these crimes. According to the plea, Cohen said he arranged payments to two women who claimed they had had affairs with Trump before he ran for President.
The bombshell here was that in the plea, Cohen said those crimes were committed “in coordination and at the direction” of Trump – essentially naming the President as a co-conspirator in this felony.
Going forward, it will be interesting to see what effect (if any) this has on Trump. According to the longstanding position of the Justice Department, the President cannot simply be indicted for committing a crime – as Congress theoretically has the duty to prosecute and remove the President from office if it wants to.
But, the question being asked by many is: if making these payments to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal was a crime, and Trump directly ordered those payments to be made – then how is Trump not guilty of committing the same crime?
Kavanaugh
With all of the hubbub about Manafort and Cohen, it was easy to miss what I think was an equally significant nugget of political news today. Senator Susan Collins – one of the most crucial swing votes in the Senate – said that Brett Kavanaugh told her that he believes Roe v. Wade is “settled law.”
This is hugely important because Kavanaugh’s position on Roe was thought to be the main dealbreaker that could potentially swing Senators Collins and Murkowski over to the Democrats’ side, tanking the nomination.
If Collins believes Kavanaugh, then it’s possible she could end up voting to confirm him. And, if Collins votes for the confirmation, many red-state Democratic Senators would likely follow suit. If they believe Kavanaugh’s confirmation is a sure thing, why would they anger their constituents even more by voting against him?
My personal prediction is that if Collins announces support for Kavanaugh, you will likely see Senators Heitkamp, Manchin, Donelly, McCaskill, and Tester all announce their support for the nominee as well.
Hunter
Literally as I have been sitting in my living room writing this post, another bombshell dropped. Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter of California and his wife have been indicted on charges that they misused campaign funds.
Hunter joins Rep. Chris Collins as the second GOP Congressman this month to be indicted. Hunter, like Collins, was an early endorser of Donald Trump. While he has issued a statement claiming his innocence, Hunter will likely have to vacate his seat – or at least not run for reelection like Collins.
This could open a window for the Democrat in the race, Ammar Campa-Najjar. Campa-Najjar is a former Obama aide seeking to compete in a heavily Republican district. Other competitive Congressional races in Southern California might allow Campa-Najjar to capitalize on all the extra attention his campaign might now receive.
Remember, if Democrats are able to take control of the House, they will hold committee and subpoena power – and will therefore be able to investigate the President even more, not to mention stalling his entire agenda. Every seat counts.
Conclusion
I won’t lie, I am rushing to finish this before even more news breaks… Remember, you can unsubscribe at any time by emailing NotFourNothin@gmail.com.
I want to welcome the new readers who have joined our community since the last post. Thanks as always to everyone who has shared Not 4 Nothin with their friends and families!
-Tyler
(Sources: CNN, Washington Post, New York Times, Ballotpedia, Daily Kos, and NPR)
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