Hi All,
Hard to believe it, but this is the 10th installment of Not 4 Nothin! I have a lot of (hopefully) exciting changes to the blog coming soon, so I can’t wait to share them with all of you. As we celebrate just over six months of N4N, I wanted to thank everyone for reading. We’re now at almost 75 subscribers, and I hope to keep adding more and more going forward.
I wanted to use today’s post to discuss yesterday’s elections in Ohio and Kansas – stepping away from my usual Senate-related posts to discuss races for Governor and the House of Representatives.
Ohio
Yesterday’s election in the OH-12 was the last (I know I have said it before, but I mean it this time!) Special Election of the cycle. Democrat Danny O’Connor and Republican Troy Balderson were running to finish out Pat Tiberi’s term that runs through January. So, much like the Special Election a couple months ago in Arizona – regardless of the outcome there will be a rematch between these two candidates in November.
As of now, Balderson is leading O’Connor by 1,754 votes (.9%). There are still some outstanding provisional and absentee ballots to be counted, but they likely won’t make too much of a difference in the final count. Usually, with a race this close, there would likely be court challenges and recounts requested by whoever was losing. But, since he has already announced that he will run for the same seat in November, O’Connor does not want to seem like a sore loser by dragging out this election any longer. Since the House is currently in recess, Balderson will only end up having about 2 months in Congress before facing off against O’Connor again.
Since November’s rematch between O’Connor and Balderson was already set before yesterday’s vote, this election was much more about either side being able to claim a moral victory. A decisive victory in a district Trump won by more than 10% would have allowed Republicans to breathe a huge sigh of relief. They could have pointed to Trump’s endorsement of Balderson as a sign that the President can be a political asset in the suburban districts that Democrats are targeting in 2018.
Make no mistake – the fact that Balderson won by less than 1% should be frightening to Republicans.
Trump handily won this district in 2016, no Democrat had come close to winning it in almost three decades, and it is a district where Republicans hold a 7 point advantage in voter registration. Many pundits were quick to point out that there are nearly 80 other Republican-held House districts that are currently seen as more favorable for Democrats than OH-12.
My takeaway from last night in Ohio is that the map is truly expanding for where Democrats can compete in November. Before the Special Elections in Pennsylvania and Ohio, many people (myself included) had been focusing on the 25 Republican-held districts that had voted for Clinton in 2016.
It is now obvious that Democrats will be able to mount strong challenges in many more districts than that. I am definitely not saying that Democrats will flip 80 seats in November, but they will certainly be able to compete in at least that many. Most importantly, every dollar that national Republicans are forced to spend defending an incumbent in a solidly Republican district is a dollar that cannot be spent in an even more competitive district.
There are already rumors that Republicans do not have the funds to fight on this many fronts. Remember, many of the Republicans in Congress have not faced a serious challenge in almost 10 years – so they have never been forced to fundraise or campaign as hard as they will have to this fall.
Overall, after last night I am more optimistic about the chances of a Blue Wave than I was earlier in the summer. That being said, the Republican still won – as they have in most Special Elections this cycle. If the Trump era has taught us one thing about politics – it is that absolutely anything can happen.
Kansas
One of the other races that was making news was the Republican primary for Governor of Kansas – as it was pitting a close ally of Trump’s against a sitting Republican Governor. Anyone who knows me knows that I love a good political backstory, so before we can get to the specifics of this race, it’s important to give a little background on the current political climate in Kansas.
Sam Brownback was elected Governor of Kansas during the 2010 Tea Party wave. Prior to this, he had been one of the most conservative members of the Senate, and immediately set about slashing taxes in the state. Except, there was one wrinkle in his plan – he cut taxes more than spending, leading to a serious budget deficit.
Rather than restoring any of the corporate taxes that he had cut, Brownback decided to use school funding to cover the gap. This led to teacher layoffs, program rollbacks, and maintenance cuts at schools around the state. The deplorable state of schools in Kansas caused Brownback’s popularity to plummet. Around the country, Democrats began to use Brownback as an example of how conservative orthodoxy was fundamentally flawed.
Eventually, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled that Brownback’s school funding plan was unconstitutional as it was impossible to provide a quality education under the Governor’s funding formula.
Seeing that being allied with Brownback was putting them on the wrong side of public opinion, the Republican-dominated State Legislature passed a bill reversing Brownback’s tax cuts in the name of giving more funding to school. They were even able to override Brownback’s veto of the measure.
With his popularity sagging, Brownback was tossed a lifeline by Trump – who appointed the Governor as U.S. Ambassador for International Religious Freedom. (I’m sure Trump appointed Brownback because white, heterosexual, Christian, men have clearly faced discrimination in the world for far too long…)
Either way, Brownback resigned as Governor to be replaced by Jeff Colyer, the more establishment-aligned Lieutenant Governor. After the rollback of Brownback’s tax cuts, Colyer seemed to be in a strong position to win reelection.
Then Kris Kobach tossed his hat in the ring. Kobach had been the leader of Trump’s now-defunct Voter Fraud Commission (the commission that was investigating his baseless claim that 5 million undocumented people voted for Hillary Clinton as part of a deep state conspiracy – all funded by our tax dollars…).
From the beginning, Kobach tried to tie himself to Trump – in the end leading to a Twitter endorsement from the President. Before Trump, it was incredibly rare for a President to endorse anyone in a primary, especially those elections that featured an incumbent from the President’s party.
But, Trump’s endorsement certainly didn’t hurt Kobach – who was able to surge and now holds a 191 vote lead over Colyer. This slim a margin will obviously trigger all kinds of recounts, so it might be a few days before we learn who actually won.
Kobach is definitely a controversial candidate, and if he wins the primary it could open a door for Democrat Laura Kelly to make a real challenge. However, there is also an independent candidate running named Greg Orman – his presence on the ballot could definitely change the dynamics of the race.
Much like some of the newly competitive House districts – any money that national Republicans have to spend defending the Governor’s mansion in Kansas is money that cannot be spent elsewhere.
As I stated before, last night left me more optimistic about the prospect of 2018 being a true wave year. In almost every single race, Democrats have been over performing compared to past elections. Midterms generally favor the minority party to begin with, and though his numbers have been improving slightly, Trump is still an unpopular President. It is impossible to say what will happen in November, but last night did leave Democrats in a stronger position than they had been in previously.
Remember: feel free to send questions/comments/concerns/email addresses of new readers to NotFourNothin@gmail.com!
Thanks,
Tyler
(Sources: CNN, Politico, New York Times, FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos)
Not 4 Nothin 