Hi All,
In an effort to make up for the delay between my previous two posts, I’ve decided to write one this week to get back on a (somewhat) regular schedule.
This will be the first in a series of posts, each devoted to a competitive Senate race that includes an incumbent Democrat running in a state won by Trump. Hopefully these next few posts help paint a picture of what will be some of the most expensive and nastiest Senate races in history.
West Virginia Background
I chose to start this series with West Virginia because of that state’s unique place in American political history. The only reason it exists as a state is because it seceded from the Commonwealth of Virginia (I haven’t forgotten – I know I still need to write a post about why four states refer to themselves as Commonwealths…), during the Civil War. Immediately after Virginia voted to leave the Union, the representatives from northwestern part of the state made the decision to stay in the United States by forming their own state.
In the 1930s, the citizens of West Virginia were some of the biggest beneficiaries of FDR’s New Deal programs. This series of public works projects led to electricity, running water, and jobs reaching parts of the state that were some of the most impoverished areas in the country. FDR helped endear West Virginians to the progressive and Democratic thinking that was behind the New Deal.
In the 1960 election, West Virginia effectively sent JFK to the White House. It was one of the most heavily Protestant states in the country that had a long history of anti-Catholic sentiments. The fact that Kennedy was able to win the Democratic primary there helped alleviate some Democratic fears that he would be unable to win nationwide. Winning the West Virginia primary was the single most important event that led Kennedy to win the nomination in a crowded field.
By the latter half of the 20th century, West Virginia had established itself as a very reliable Democratic leaning state. In fact, from 1959 to 2014, West Virginia did not have a Republican representing them in the Senate. Two out of the six men who served as West Virginia’s Senators in that time had previously been elected Governor, including one of the main subjects of this post: Joe Manchin.
The Last True Independent in the Senate?
One of the worst byproducts of increasing political polarization has been the abandonment of the concept of conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans. The Republican Party of 2018 would not be a home to Republicans like Nelson Rockefeller and George Romney. There is even an argument on the right that John McCain isn’t conservative enough – John McCain…!
Due to their staggering losses in state and local elections (particularly in more rural areas) Democrats have been slower to purge centrists from their party – they simply cannot afford to do so in many areas.
Joe Manchin is one of those centrists. In the past he has been endorsed by the NRA, has opposed clean air plans, and argued for less government regulation on the coal industry. During his first Senate campaign in 2010, he produced one of the most effective ads of the cycle highlighting some of his more conservative values. The spot worked. He was able to win a seat in a rapidly reddening state during one of the worst Midterm election seasons ever for Democrats.
That being said, Joe Manchin has also been a staunch defender of Democratic programs that help his constituents. West Virginia is one of the most heavily reliant states on Obamacare, so Manchin fought to keep the law in tact.
He voted against all versions of the tax bill, voted against environmental rollbacks championed by EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, and voted against the confirmation of some Trump nominees like Betsy DeVos and Mick Mulvaney.
Make no mistake, Joe Manchin is a conservative Democrat – but I don’t think that is a bad thing. Democrats need to avoid having super strict litmus tests for candidates. They need to avoid groupthink, otherwise they will continue to lose elections – especially in more conservative areas. Make no mistake, having core values as a party can be beneficial – but not if it automatically excludes all who have minor disagreements with the party’s base.
Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania and Doug Jones in Alabama were good examples of being able to define themselves as Democrats without being successfully being tainted as “too liberal” for their districts.
In his political career (first as Governor and later as Senator), Joe Manchin has been able to connect with his constituents and represent their interests well in the Senate – but in 2018 he is facing the toughest campaign of his life.
This Should Be Easy for Republicans But Isn’t…
Make no mistake about it, Manchin has an uphill climb ahead of him. Trump won the state in 2016 with 68.7% of the vote – the most of any state. This is also the highest percentage of the vote that any presidential candidate has ever gotten in West Virginia.
To win, Manchin will have to distance himself from unpopular national Democrats (Pelosi, Schumer, etc.), while simultaneously energizing the small but loud populist progressive wing of the electorate. If he wins, this will not be the first time Manchin is able to overcome a partisan affiliation with national Democratic figures who are disliked in West Virginia.
Running for his first full term in 2012 (he was elected in 2010 to finish the term of Robert Byrd who died in office), Manchin ran on the same ticket in West Virginia as Barack Obama. While Obama didn’t lose the state as bad as Hillary Clinton did (he garnered 35.5% compared to Clinton’s 26.5%), he was certainly not close to beating Romney there. But, Manchin was able to overcome that and win his Senate race with nearly 61% of the vote – only losing three counties in the whole state.
That being said, if the Republicans are able to nominate a well funded and well liked candidate to challenge Manchin, the Senator could be in real trouble heading into 2018. Except the West Virginia GOP is in danger of imploding and giving a boost to Manchin just as this election gets to one of its most crucial phases.
The Not Good, the Very Bad, and the Ugly
There are three candidates running in the Republican primary to challenge Senator Manchin. Congressman Evan Jenkins has a narrow lead in most recent polls. Jenkins began his political career as a Democrat in the State Legislature and was elected to Congress in 2014 (the same election that saw Shelley Moore Capito elected to the Senate from West Virginia making her the first Republican elected to the Senate from that state in 55 years).
Jenkins’ main opponent is Attorney General Patrick Morrissey. Morrissey and Jenkins have been locked in a bitter contest where both men have tried to expose the other’s perceived lack of conservative bona fides. Morrissey has attacked the fact that Jenkins was a registered Democrat during the beginning of the Obama years, while Jenkins loves to remind voters that Morrissey was actually born and raised in New Jersey (oh the horror!).
While both of these candidates have taken slight shots at Mitch McConnell and said that they would not vote for him as Majority Leader if elected (which is generally a hollow pledge, just look at Senator David Perdue of Georgia), both would be tough candidates for Manchin to beat in the general election. But, there is one other candidate that represents a possible Roy Moore-sized nightmare for the GOP.
Don Blankenship is a disgraced former coal baron who has tried to mold himself in the image of another Don: Trump. Blankenship is a bombastic billionaire who served as CEO of Massey Energy – a coal company that owned the Upper Big Branch Mine in Raleigh County, WV.
On April 5, 2010 Upper Big Branch was the sight of the deadliest coal mine disaster in decades, when a coal dust explosion killed 29 miners. Immediately after the disaster, Massey Energy’s business practices came under scrutiny by federal investigators. After an investigation turned up many instances of Blankenship himself ordering the coverup of several safety issues at Upper Big Branch before the explosion, Blankenship was sentenced to one year in prison for his role in the conspiracy.
Blankenship has always maintained his innocence, and has said that he was simply a “political prisoner” of the Obama administration – a charge that has been resonating with some Republican primary voters in West Virginia. But, Blankenship remains a hated figure in many parts of the state – the living example of a coal baron run amok.
Blankenship’s entry into the race has forced the national Republican apparatus to spend millions of dollars on ads trying to bury him and boost both Jenkins and Morrissey. There is a Super PAC (thought to be run by Democrats) has been targeting the frontrunner Jenkins – and subsequently given some air to Blankenship’s campaign. Blankenship used that metaphorical air to refer to Mitch McConnell’s father-in-law (also known as the father of U.S. Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao) as a “Chinaperson.” In a debate this past week, Blankenship doubled down on his remarks.
With the primary election taking place next Tuesday, we’ll soon know who will be facing off against Manchin in November. It’s likely that either Jenkins or Morrissey will win, but the question is how much damage will Blankenship do to the West Virginia GOP in the meantime. This is definitely a race to watch – and is just one of many races Democrats must win to have any chance of taking the Senate.
That’s all for this post. I am taking suggestions for what Senate race to profile next, so if you have one you would like to see discussed in Not 4 Nothin, shoot me an email!
If you know anyone you think might enjoy Not 4 Nothin, please send their email address to NotFourNothin@gmail.com. Remember you can unsubscribe at any time by sending an email to that same address. As always, questions/comments/concerns are always welcome!
-Tyler
(Sources: Ballotpedia, the Daily Beast, FiveThirtyEight, CNN, Huntington Herald Dispatch, Bluefield Daily Telegraph)
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