Hi All,
Apologies for the hiatus from writing – it’s been a hectic few weeks.
Today I want to talk about a few things related to the possibility of a Blue Wave coming in the Midterms. I know it is a subject that I’ve discussed at length before, but several things have happened over the past month that lead me to believe the GOP is in real trouble this November.
AZ-08: Lesko v. Tipirneni
Last night marked the end of one of the last Special Elections of this cycle. With the GA-6, Montana At-Large, Alabama Senate, and PA-18, etc. – it has seemed like a never ending stream of Specials where Democrats strongly outperform their 2016 totals.
The Special Election in the Arizona 8th District was being held to replace Rep. Trent Franks in Congress after he resigned in an odd sexual harassment scandal where he attempted to coerce a staffer into serving as a surrogate for him and his wife.
This district voted for Trump by over 20%, and Democrats hadn’t even been able to field a candidate since 2012. In the end, former State Senator Debbie Lesko (the Republican) beat Emergency Room Doctor Hiral Tipirneni (the Democrat). The final tally was 52.9%-47.2%.
As was the case with last night’s Special in Arizona – Republicans have been able to win some of these contests even though the Democrats have come close in districts that weren’t even initially seen as vulnerable (think Jon Ossoff v. Karen Handel). Now, as my brother Brian likes to say: “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades…”
To a certain extent, he is right. However, last night’s election in Arizona shows that Democrats are turning out in high numbers in what were thought to be safe Republican districts. This is the same thing that happened in Georgia, Kansas, Wisconsin, Alabama, and Pennsylvania. Democrats might not have won all of those elections, but they are certainly doing better than they have in recent cycles.
By any measure, a 53-47 win is a close election – and as Dave Wasserman from Cook Political Report put it last night: “there are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08. It’s time to start rethinking how many of those are truly safe in November.
If Democrats are able to keep this momentum going into the Midterms, it could be a sign of a huge Blue Wave – especially in suburban areas where voters are not as supportive of President Trump. While a Tipierneni win would have been a nice surprise, she was able to capture more than 47% of the vote without the kind of help from national Democrats that was given to Doug Jones, Jon Ossoff, and Conor Lamb. She has already announced that she will challenge Lesko in the November election, so this isn’t over yet.
What the Heck is Going on in Missouri
We turn now from Democratic women doing amazing things to a Republican man doing disgusting things. If you asked me in 2016 who I saw as the future of the GOP, I would have said Eric Greitens without hesitation.
A telegenic former Navy SEAL who started one of the country’s largest non-profits that assists veterans find jobs after leaving the armed services, Greitens was a rising star in the Republican Party. He was able to easily win the Governor’s race in Missouri with cross party appeal. Before entering the race for Governor as a Republican, Missouri Democrats had been trying to get him to run for office for years.
Before the 2016 election, I had him at the top of my list as potential challengers to Hillary Clinton in 2020. Obviously, after the election, that date changed to 2024 – but I still believed that Greitens had the appeal to be elected President at some point in the future.
But, it turns out that Greitens had some skeletons in his closet that have all but ruined his political career – and could very well land him in prison. Before announcing his run for Governor in 2016, Greitens was having an affair with his hairdresser. During this relationship, he allegedly took nude photos of her without her consent and threatened to release the pictures if she ever revealed their affair.
Additionally, the woman claims that Greitens physically and sexually assaulted her on several occasions – but she feared retribution if she went public with the claims. This story only became public in the first place when the woman’s husband found out about the initial affair, filed for divorce, and told reporters what he knew.
Greitens has been charged with felony invasion of privacy due to the fact that the nude pictures were taken without the woman’s knowledge or consent. Greitens has denied all charges and said that this is all part of a coordinated political “witch hunt” (sound familiar…?).
Though these charges were brought by the St. Louis District Attorney, the investigation Greitens spawned a separate investigation into his campaign for Governor by the Missouri Attorney General (more on why the AG’s investigation is politically significant in a bit).
This new investigation found that Greitens had illegally used donor information from the charity he ran to raise money for his gubernatorial campaign. Last week, Greitens was charged with felony computer tampering as a result of the campaign violations.
So far, Greitens has refused to resign even though the Republican-dominated State Legislature has begun the impeachment process (actual removal from office is still a long way off, but they have discussed calling session to debate impeachment charges).
Don’t Forget the Politics!
While it’s hard to talk about the politics surrounding such a disgusting and sad situation, it is important to know the political storylines at play here. All of this turmoil is happening in a state that boasts one of the most competitive Senate elections of the 2018 cycle.
Incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill is facing her toughest election ever against Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley – the same Attorney General whose office referred the second felony charge against Eric Greitens.
Greitens and Hawley had always been seen as a pair. Both were young political newcomers who had run in and won statewide elections in 2016. With Greitens in the Governor’s Mansion and Hawley running for Senate against a Democrat in a state Trump won by almost 19%, it seemed like both men were destined for bright futures in Missouri and on the national stage.
But, Hawley quickly realized that his close relationship with Greitens had become a liability. He was the first prominent Republican in Missouri to call for Greitens’ resignation. But, his office’s referral of additional felony charges truly has the appearance of being politically motivated – as a way for Hawley to distance himself even further from his former ally.
I’m not saying that Greitens didn’t use his charity’s donor list as a piggy bank for his campaign, but the fact that it was Hawley’s office that referred this second set of charges smells of political opportunism.
All of this benefits Claire McCaskill who, as Politico noted, has benefited from GOP misconduct/stupidity in past elections. She was running for reelection against Congressman Todd Akin in 2012 when Akin made his infamous comments about “legitimate rape.” Many observers believe that it was those comments that swung the election in McCaskill’s favor – as Mitt Romney won the state by nearly 10% that same year.
If McCaskill is able to pull off another upset victory, it will put a dent in the GOP’s chances of increasing their Senate Majority. Make no mistake, McCaskill is still very vulnerable (especially if Greitens resigns sometime soon and, thus, the scandal becomes old news by Election Day), but many Republicans had banked on winning this seat as a way to counteract Democratic gains in the House.
The fall of Eric Greitens has been a sad, gross, and anger-inducing saga. But, this could potentially have huge ramifications on the national political environment – and should be something to keep in mind.
I have been somewhat disheartened by the lack of coverage this story has gotten in the national press. You have the most powerful man in Missouri – a true rising star in the GOP – being accused of sexually and physically assaulting his former mistress, not to mention blackmailing her; yet, this story has received less coverage than Melania Trump’s hat.
It’s sad that we have become so consumed with the daily Trump fiascos, that we have neglected to remember that there are other politicians out there besides the one who sits in the Oval Office.
To their credit, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has done some fantastic reporting on this story, so I encourage everyone to check that out – they’ve gone into incredible detail on the origins of the investigations, as well as continued coverage of the fallout.
That’s all for this post – sorry again for the delay between the previous one and now. I really do try to get these out every two weeks as much as my schedule allows. If you know anyone you think might enjoy Not 4 Nothin, please send their email address to NotFourNothin@gmail.com. Remember you can unsubscribe at any time by sending an email to that same address. As always, questions/comments/concerns are always welcome!
-Tyler
Sources: CNN, Ballotpedia, Politico, St. Louis Post Dispatch, Cook Political Report
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