Hi All,
One thing that I want to make clear about last night’s election is that the only consequences it had were image-related. Now, that is obviously true of most political contests, but I can’t really remember a highly publicized election having as few direct consequences as this one.
Remember, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has redrawn every Congressional district in the state (well, as I said last time Pennsylvania is not a state – it’s a commonwealth and I promise I will explain the history of that distinction at a later date). But because of these imminent changes to Pennsylvania’s Congressional map, the district that Conor Lamb and Rick Saccone were running in yesterday will cease to exist as of November.
In fact, qualifying for the new Congressional districts (as drawn by the Court) will occur next month, meaning that the PA-18 as we know it will be splitting up soon. So why did national Republican groups funnel more than $10 million into this race? Because optics matter.
Make no mistake, the fact that this was close at all was an incredible embarrassment to the Republican Party and Paul Ryan. Donald Trump won this district by almost 20% in 2016. He made multiple visits to the District, as did Mike Pence and Ivanka Trump.
National Republicans are going to try to put this election in a vacuum. They are going to say that Rick Saccone was weak candidate (he was) and that Conor Lamb ran far to the right of mainstream Democrats (he did). These are the same excuses they made after Doug Jones’ election in Alabama and Ralph Northam’s landslide in Virginia.
This line of thinking does have some merit – not every Republican is Roy Moore or Rick Saccone – but the fact remains that this is a 94% white district that went for Trump by 20% less than 18 months ago. Republicans have been so dominant in Congressional elections here that Democrats have not even been able to field a candidate since 2012 (when Mitt Romney won the district by 17%).
So What Does This Mean?
The Republican Congressional majority is officially in jeopardy in 2018. Look for more retirements to start rolling in from incumbents who think they could be vulnerable in the midterms. Republicans also must reflect on whether or not it was a good idea to pump $10 million into propping up a candidate as weak as Saccone when they might have 50-60 competitive Congressional battles to wage in November.
I believe the Democrats actually have more internal questions to answer after last night than the Republicans do. Conor Lamb’s first campaign ad featured him holding an AR-15 discussing his support of the Second Amendment. He also ran a spot discussing his opposition to Nancy Pelosi. Make no mistake, candidates like Conor Lamb will be non-starters with the progressive wing of the party. Moreover, candidates like Conor Lamb will likely not make it out of primary contests against more liberal opponents…
That being said, there are two main political outcomes I see spawning from this race. The first involves the group that I have devoted more time to in these posts than anyone else – Democratic Senators up for reelection in states that Trump won. Look for candidates like Joe Manchin in West Virginia, John Tester in Montana, and Claire McCaskill in Missouri to tack more towards the center. They have the organization and funding to dispose of any potential primary challengers, and the results of the PA-18 race show that just because Trump won an area does not mean it is out of Democrats’ reach.
The other main political takeaway for Democrats after PA-18 is that Joe Biden is still an incredibly strong political force to be reckoned with. Remember, he was pretty much the only national Democratic figure who campaigned for Conor Lamb (not to mention Doug Jones in Alabama).
Biden clearly still packs quite a punch with union-leaning, white working class voters. This would surely help him should he decide to run in 2020. He has an established national image, the ability to raise tons of money, and most importantly – he has the implied backing of Barack Obama. All of this would help him stand out in what is sure to be a crowded primary field.
Politico ran a fascinating article about Biden’s potential next moves a few days ago – and I think his path to the White House has certainly widened after successful campaigns in Alabama and Pennsylvania.
But Back to the State Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
My biggest takeaway from this race is the implication it might have on national races. Remember, Donald Trump won in 2016 because of three states – Michigan (Trump won by 10,704 votes), Wisconsin (22,748 votes), and Pennsylvania (44,292 votes). That means if the Democrats can peel away just a few voters in each precinct, they can re-establish their midwestern firewall.
I think a lot of Democrats like me sometimes believe that if voters were so disaffected that they supported Trump, that there is no getting them back. Elections in Virginia, Alabama, and now Pennsylvania have shown us that that is simply not true. In a way, the Republicans are right – elections do sometimes happen in vacuums. That’s why it’s so important for Democrats to run qualified candidates who reflect their own districts, and not necessarily a national political orthodoxy.
If Democrats do that, I see no reason why they can’t win the House in 2018, as well as the White House in 2020.
Thank you everyone for reading. I know we have several new subscribers this week so welcome to all of you! Remember to send email addresses of people you think might enjoy reading this biweekly newsletter to NotFourNothin@gmail.com.
-Tyler
(Sources: CNN, Politico, 270toWin, Ballotpedia)
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