Hi All,
Welcome to the latest installment of Not 4 Nothin. Today I wanted to talk more about the race for the House of Representatives (where I believe the Democrats have a much better chance of taking the majority than in the Senate), as well as the continuing list of self-inflicted scandals that the Administration is dealing with.
For Democrats To Win The House, All Roads Lead Through PA
As I have discussed in earlier posts, for Democrats to actually win a majority in the House they will have to significantly outperform Hillary Clinton in many districts. Keep in mind that many of these districts were gerrymandered to have Republican advantages, so Democrats will have to perform well in unfavorable districts.
However, since the Pennsylvania Supreme Court overturned the state’s Republican-drawn Congressional maps, there is hope that Democrats will be able to take several seats away from Republicans in November. Pennsylvania, like North Carolina, is a glaring example of Republican-drawn districts leaving to an unfair GOP majority in the state’s House delegation.
In 2016, Trump won 12 of the 18 House districts in Pennsylvania. However, statewide, Trump only beat Clinton by .62% (or about 44,000 votes). But since the districts were drawn after the 2010 GOP wave, they were created to protect the GOP’s advantage. State Democrats challenged the 2010 map in state court on the grounds that it violated Pennsylvania’s Constitution and ended up winning a sweeping victory.
Suing under the state constitution (well, actually Pennsylvania is technically a Commonwealth not a state, but that’s a conversation for another post…), was an important strategic decision because it meant that the U.S. Supreme Court would likely stay out of the case. Additionally, Democrats hold a majority on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.
The Court sided with the Democrats saying that the GOP-drawn maps violated the Pennsylvania Constitution – the Court gave the Legislature three weeks to redraw maps that would have to be approved by Governor Tom Wolf, a Democrat. Republicans drew a new set of maps that were just as partisan as the previous ones, so Wolf used his veto power and rejected them.
Due to the impasse between the Legislature and the Governor, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court is going to redraw the maps on its own, which will likely lead to a final battle over the new maps in the U.S. Supreme Court. Keep in mind that a Supreme Court ruling on gerrymandering in Wisconsin is expected in June – which is a case that could have far-reaching consequences for gerrymandered districts across the country.
No matter what happens with the new maps, they will not be used until the primaries for the November elections, meaning that the special election in PA’s 18th Congressional District will go forward using the 2010 district map.
Republicans seem to be increasingly worried that their candidate, Rick Saccone, is underperforming – and are terrified of losing a seat in an upset that would be just as embarrassing as the Alabama Senate race. The RNC announced that they were going to pump another $400,000 into the race to prop up Saccone.
The Democrat, Conor Lamb, has been raising a ton of money, and the national party has been tiptoeing around this race to avoid opening Lamb up to attacks that he is too close to Pelosi and Schumer (which was the same strategy used in Alabama). This will be a tough race for Lamb to win, but the sheer amount of money that National Republicans have injected into the district shows how worried they are about losing.
Trump’s Bad Week
With all of the troubling things that have happened this week, it is hard to discuss politics, but it is important to note how bad of a week this was for Trump. His Administration careened from scandal to scandal with no end in site. Here’s a roundup of just some of what happened:
First, his outside counsel – Michael Cohen – admitted to paying Stormy Daniels a $130,000 settlement, but declined to say whether or not it was to get her to keep quiet about their affair (hint: it was). Keep in mind that this payment was made a couple weeks before the 2016 election. Daniels now is saying that Cohen’s admission has breached their non-disclosure agreement, and claims this gives her the right to discuss the situation. The rumor is that she is already attempting to sell exclusive rights to her story.
The Daniels Scandal (though I prefer to call it “Stormy Weather”), comes on the heels of the growing outrage over the Administration’s handling of Rob Porter. Before being accused of multiple instances of domestic violence, Porter was a rising star in the West Wing and was considered one of Chief of Staff John Kelly’s most trusted aides.
Kelly’s lackluster response to testimonials from two of Porter’s ex-wives has opened the Administration up to the accusation that they do not care about domestic violence issues, a point of view furthered by Trump’s tweets on the subject. All of this has called into question how long Kelly will be able to hang onto his job – with people close to the situation saying Trump has officially soured on Kelly.
Finally – and most significantly for Trump’s administration – is a report that Rick Gates (former Trump campaign aide and Paul Manafort’s deputy) is close to finalizing a plea deal with Robert Mueller. This means that he will likely cooperate in the Special Prosecutor’s case against Trump and Manafort. Keep in mind that Michael Flynn and George Papadopoulos have already reached plea deals in exchange for their cooperation – meaning that three out of four people indicted by Mueller are now going to be cooperating witnesses.
Mueller has been very methodical in starting at the bottom and working his way up the ladder in Trump’s orbit, his next targets are likely more senior members of the Administration like Kushner, Trump Jr., and Trump himself.
That does it for this installment, I’ll have another note for everyone in two weeks! Remember, if you know anyone who you think would like to receive these notes, send their email address to NotFourNothin@gmail.com and I will add them to the list!
-Tyler
Not 4 Nothin 