Hi All,
In this post I’ll be discussing last night’s State of the Union speech, response, and for the first time – I’ll be covering some news from the 2020 Presidential race…
Trump’s First State of the Union
The Trump that spoke last night was the President Trump that the entire Republican establishment wishes had been in the Oval Office for the past year. He was coherent, measured, and even a little bipartisan – though this being Trump, the bar wasn’t really set that high… Reviews of the speech were mostly positive – just like with his first Joint Congressional Address last year. The question is, how long will this last?
Generally speaking, Presidents spend the days after their SOTU speeches traveling around the country selling the agenda that they unveiled during the address – a part of being President that Trump might actually like. The issue is that he did not really announce any new initiatives during his speech. Sure, he discussed a possible infrastructure package (it’s now apparently up to $1.5 trillion and has zero chance of being passed during an election year) and even showed a softening on criminal justice reform (good luck doing that with Jefferson Beauregard Sessions still hanging on as AG), but overall the speech was devoid of any real plans.
However, it is speeches like this that give weary Republicans cover. They point to moments like last night as evidence that Trump is not the vindictive, stupid, buffoon that he acts like the other 364 days of the year. What baffles me is that Trump’s entire goal in life is to be accepted and liked – if he was the SOTU Trump all the time, I see no reason why his approval ratings wouldn’t be at least in the high 40s/low 50s. But, SOTU Trump is likely to be a distant memory as soon as he logs back on to Twitter.
Also keep in mind that government funding runs out in one week, and there is still no deal on DACA. Given their failure the first time to secure protections for Dreamers, I doubt that Schumer will opt to shut down the government again. However, Senate Democrats have been hearing pointed critiques from the left wing of the party over the perception that Schumer caved during the shutdown last week. It’s anyone’s guess what will happen, but the clock is ticking for an immigration deal to be struck.
2020: A New Democrat With A Familiar Name
Rep. Joe Kennedy III’s Democratic response to the SOTU last night immediately cast him as a potential 2020 Presidential candidate. The opposition party’s SOTU response is always a spot reserved for rising stars within the party. While Kennedy’s fast speaking style and apparent overuse of lip gloss were critiqued, I believe he made a powerful ascent onto the national stage last night.
He clearly has the oratorical skills of his grandfather and great uncles – and it’s easy to see that many people feel that the Kennedy’s were in control when America was a more optimistic place than it is today. Since being sworn in five years ago, Congressman Kennedy has kept a fairly low national profile, but has become an outspoken supporter of mental health issues, as well as climate change.
With a list of accomplishments and a pedigree like that, it would be ridiculous to think that he does not have any national ambitions – and I personally think that he would be a good candidate to counter Trump in 2020. That being said, with his state’s senior Senator already thought of as a Democratic frontrunner, Kennedy might forgo 2020 and set his sites on 2024 or 2028 (when he’ll still be just 48 years old).
The Issue With 2020
With or without Joe Kennedy III as a candidate, the race for the Democratic nomination is already beginning to shape up – but the lack of geographical diversity in their field might end up hurting Democrats with voters in the middle of the country who defected to Trump in 2016. Additionally, politicians from the same area often have overlapping donor bases and media markets – opening the door to an expensive and divisive primary.
Think of the potential candidates and where they come from. Warren and Sanders are both from New England; Cuomo, Gillibrand, De Blasio (Heaven help us…), Corey Booker, and Chris Murphy all hail from the New York media market; and Kamala Harris, Jerry Borwn, Eric Garcetti, Oprah, and Mark Zuckerberg are all from California.
Don’t be surprised if you see a moderate Democrat run on a platform of bipartisan compromise and pragmatism. They might not win the nomination, but could give other moderate Democrats cover so they won’t have to support one of the more liberal candidates from the start.
In fact, the only announced candidate so far is John Delaney – a former Congressman from Maryland. According to the Washington Post, he is running an ad in Iowa during the Super Bowl coverage that highlights his belief in bipartisanship. Watch the ad here.
Either way, Democrats need to hone their messaging to reach out to the Obama voters who supported Trump in 2016, or else they risk simply running up the margins in states that were already guaranteed to support their candidate – whoever he or she is.
2018 Wave Watch: Another Two Bite The Dust
In my first post almost a month ago, I talked about the possibility of a Democratic wave election coming during the Midterms. With the recently announced retirements of Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ) and Trey Gowdy (SC), I think the GOP is seeing the same signs as the rest of us. Both Frelinghuysen and Gowdy were powerful House Republicans, and their retirements are surprising. However, they join a growing list of powerful Congressional Republicans who are choosing to retire rather than run for reelection with Trump hanging around their necks.
Of the 31 members of the House and Senate who are not running for reelection (or seeking a different political office), 25 are Republicans. We’ll see how this shapes up – but as filing season begins to ramp up, I’m betting these won’t be the last retirements we see.
Thank you everyone for reading, and welcome to all the new readers! Remember you can unsubscribe at any time, and if you know someone who might like to receive these notes please send their email address to NotFourNothin@gmail.com.
-Tyler
(Sources: CNN, Politico, Washington Post, Ballotpedia)
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