Hi All,
I am straying from the schedule a little bit today to provide a quick update on the shutdown. Keep in mind that most of this was written before the news was announced a few minutes ago that the Senate had reached a compromise to end the shutdown.
How Did We Get Here
As silly as it seems that shutdowns actually happen, they were much more common in the 1970s and 1980s when the U.S. saw long periods of divided governments. In those days (as with the shutdowns in 1995, 1996, and 2013), shutdowns were usually caused due to disagreements between the President and Congress. This is the first time in history that the federal government has shut down when one party controls the House, the Senate, and the White House.
Democrats will tell you that this shutdown was about getting a fair deal for the Dreamers, Republicans in Congress will say that the Democrats were holding the majority hostage, and Trump has said that Democrats simply wanted to distract from what had been some fairly positive headlines after Tax Reform passed.
Democrats have been upset throughout the past year at what they see as the Republican majority steamrolling them at every opportunity. They were not invited to contribute to the Tax Reform bill or the Obamacare repeal efforts – a first for major legislation. Additionally, the Democratic Congressional Leadership has taken some heat from the progressive wing of the party for what some see as them being too willing to cut deals with Trump.
When Trump ended DACA last fall, he promised a legislative fix for DACA – and that he would ask, in exchange, for more border security measures. Keep in mind, that almost every Senate Democrat is on record supporting additional border security – just not Trump’s beloved wall.
January 9 provided Trump with the best news cycle of his presidency (and you better believe he cares about that), when he hosted a bipartisan meeting about immigration live on national television. The fact that he was allowing the public to view what are generally very secretive meetings provided Americans with an incredible look at how their government works. In my mind, this was one situation where having an egomaniacal reality TV star as President actually benefited the American people.
However, Trump being Trump, he could not keep that momentum going. One fascinating moment during the meeting occurred when Trump seemingly agreed to support a “clean” DACA bill – meaning that it would not come with any other measures attached to it. As soon as he publicly agreed to this (which would give Democrats a huge political gift), House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy attempted to reel the President back in.
This seems to be a theme with Trump and the people he has surrounded himself with. I truly believe that he wants to be liked more than anything else – which would lead him to want to cut the right deals if it will end up making him look good. Throughout his life, he never was much of a political ideologue, as evidenced by his donations to many Democratic politicians including Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton. However, every time he seems to cozy up to Democrats in any way, the right wing hardliners pull him back.
So, the federal government was left with a Friday deadline to approve funding – which Democrats said they would not do without DACA legislation. The government shutdown began at midnight Friday evening.
What Is In the Compromise?
This situation is evolving as I write this note, so few details are known at this time. Senator Schumer has said that Congress will address the DACA issue “immediately” when the government reopens, but keep in mind that the House must also pass any DACA legislation that the Senate comes up with.
Given the conservative stranglehold on the House, it is unlikely that they would pass any DACA fix without serious concessions from the Democrats.
Who Will Come Out on Top?
There are basically two schools of thought here. Republicans believe they can make the point that Democrats chose the lives of undocumented immigrants over funding the government – something that is not popular amongst the conservative base or in the 10 states that Trump won that have Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2018.
Democrats believe they can paint the Republicans as heartless and racist for not caring about the 800,000 people who were brought to the U.S. when they were young. Polls have shown that an overwhelming majority of Americans support DACA, and want to see a legislative fix to the issue (though many polls show more Americans favor keeping the government open even if it means not immediately solving the DACA issue).
Only time will tell who gets most of the blame for this situation, but that might not even matter. Keep in mind that most Americans blamed Congressional Republicans for the 2013 shutdown, but Democrats still took big losses in the 2014 midterms. Either way, we should know something about whether or not this will continue by about 2pm today.
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-Tyler
Not 4 Nothin 