Waves. Read pretty much any political commentary lately, and it will likely be talking about the possibility of 2018 becoming a Wave Election. Depending on who you watch/read/listen to, this wave might be a tsunami of progressive ideology wiping away the 2016 election, or it might be another wave of former-Democrats defecting to support Donald Trump.
I, for one, believe that the Midterms are shaping up to be a good – but not great – year for Democrats. Below, I will list several factors that will end up determining if there is a wave coming in 2018, and how high that wave may rise.
First, we’ll start with the bad. Here are the things working against Democrats in the Midterms:
The Senate map is scary. What do North Dakota, West Virginia, Missouri, Montana, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have in common? Trump won in all of those states, and all of those states have incumbent Senate Democrats running for reelection. This means 2018 is going to be a hard and expensive year for Democrats if they have any hopes of taking the Senate. Doug Jones’ win in Alabama was an incredible upset, but the deck is still stacked against Senate Democrats this year.
Now, one thing to keep in mind is that these are not just generic D vs. R races. Each campaign has its own unique factors that will end up determining a winner. For example, all of these supposedly ‘endangered’ Democrats last won in 2012 – when many of their states voted for Mitt Romney. This shows that they are all capable of winning in environments that could be hostile to Democrats. However, Obama was able to carry Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida – so the political climates in these states could be less favorable to Democrats in 2018 than it was in 2012.
The silver lining in the Senate map is that there are a couple of legitimate pickup opportunities for Democrats. In Nevada, a state that Hillary Clinton won, incumbent Republican Dean Heller is very unpopular with the conservative base thanks to his on/off relationship with Trump. In Arizona, a state that has been trending more Democratic in recent years due to changing demographics, frequent Trump critic Jeff Flake is retiring, leaving an open Senate seat there. Additionally, if John McCain is forced to resign due to his health problems, that could lead to a scenario where there are two open seats in the same state for the same election. Then there are the dream scenarios for Democrats in Texas and Tennessee. I will follow up on all of these battleground races in future posts, but that is a quick (or not so quick) dive into what is to come for the Senate.
House districts have been drawn to favor Republicans. In the last Wave Election – 2010 – Republicans took control of the House and narrowed their gap in the Senate. But it was the residual state and local races that, I believe, proved to be more consequential. Thanks to the unpopularity of national Democrats, Republicans were able to gain power at the best possible time – right around the time of the census.
Republicans used their new found power to draw districts that consolidated Democratic votes and create districts that were meant to maximize Republican advantages. There is currently a challenge to partisan redistricting that has been heard by the Supreme Court. The Court is set to rule on the case, Gill v. Whitford, sometime in June. But, assuming they don’t render an incredibly far-reaching decision, these 2010-drawn districts are the ones we’ll be stuck with in 2018.
All of this means that the generic Democrat vs. Republican polls that have been in the news lately are quite misleading – as Democrats will have to compete in districts that were specifically drawn to favor Republicans.
Wounds from 2016 still exist within the Democratic Party. No matter who you supported in the 2016 Democratic Primary, we can all agree that the fissure that was opened between Clinton and Sanders supporters is still there today. From 2008-2016, the Democrats had a unifying figure who was universally loved within the party. Those days are over. Without President Obama on the ballot, the Democrats are forced to have those uncomfortable conversations about the direction of the party that were essentially tabled for eight years. That’s no easy task.
However, while that pro-Obama orthodoxy was helpful for keeping the peace inside the party, it definitely hurt state and local candidates – especially in rural areas – who had no room to maneuver in areas where Obama was not as popular. While the lack of a completely unified Democratic front might be painful in the short term, it may end up helping Democrats get elected in hostile territory.
I know those last few sections were a bit of a downer for those who want to see a Democratic wave in 2018, so here are some factors that are pointing towards a good year for the Democrats…
The Republican Party is also divided. Look no further than the war of words between Trump and Bannon that has taken place over the past few days. This book, Fire and Fury, by Michael Wolff has been making waves in Washington this week leading to a boiling over of tensions between Trump and Bannon (if you haven’t read the publicly-released excerpt of the book yet, click here for an entertaining – albeit frightening – depiction of life inside the Administration). Many establishment-Republicans blame Bannon for the loss in Alabama. Bannon has “declared war” on Mitch McConnell and has promised to support far-right candidates in primaries against establishment Republicans.
McConnell and other establishment Republicans fear that having such controversial candidates running as Republicans will further hurt the party’s support in more moderate suburbs. Whether it’s Christine O’Donnell in Delaware in 2010, Todd Aiken in Missouri in 2012, or Roy Moore in Alabama in 2017 – controversial conservative candidates can become a real issue for Republicans. Also, any money that national Republicans have to spend defending an incumbent Senator from a Bannon-inspired challenge in states like Mississippi, Nebraska, or Wyoming is money that cannot be spent elsewhere.
But, this new Trump vs. Bannon war might be a sign of serious issues coming for the Administration. Say what you want about Steve Bannon, but he is not a stupid guy. He had to know he would provoke this kind of response from Trump when he gave those quotes for the new tell-all book. In my mind, this response is exactly what Bannon wanted. If, for example, more serious indictments are coming in the Russia investigation, it would behoove Bannon to distance himself from Trump as much as possible. By goading Trump into saying things like ‘Bannon never really had one-on-one access to me,’ Bannon might be able to insulate himself from some of the legal issues. Call this a crazy conspiracy theory, but Bannon has played Trump like a fiddle for almost two years, so why should now be any different?
Democratic enthusiasm is high. Call it whiplash from 2016, but Democratic activists are eager to hit the streets in support of Democrats. A party dies without its grassroots supporters, so it is vital to keep these voters revved up for the coming campaign. Additionally, independent voters who are turned off by Trumpism are completely Democrats’ for the taking. We could see a true political realignment if current trends hold.
Midterms almost always favor the party out of power. Throughout American political history, the midterm elections are almost always seen as a referendum on the President’s policies. Since the roughly half of the country who supported the other candidate in the previous Presidential Election are already fired up, it is easier to galvanize support against the politics of the ruling party.
The two most recent Wave Elections took place in 2006 and 2010, where Democrats and subsequently Republicans were able to capitalize on unpopular Presidents to take control of the House.
Donald Trump is not a popular guy. For once, Trump is correct – he is a record breaker. No first-term President has ever had as low an approval rating as he does at this point in his term. This is especially prevalent in well educated and affluent suburbs – where a bunch Republican-held districts are located.
However, Democrats cannot and should not exclusively treat 2018 as a referendum on Trump without coming up with an alternative vision of their own. Simply painting Trump as an entitled, stupid, jackass, without having a clear vision is what many people think doomed the Democrats in 2016 – so it would be wise to avoid making the same mistakes again.
I know this was a lot for our first real post, but I wanted to give everyone a taste of what is coming up this year. Not 4 Nothin’ was designed to be an in-depth commentary on current events, so I hope everyone enjoyed the first installment.
As I said before, if anyone would like to unsubscribe or add their friends/family to the email list, please don’t hesitate to send me an email at NotFourNothin@gmail.com!
Thanks,
Tyler
(Sources: Ballotpedia, SCOTUS Blog, CNN, Real Clear Politics)
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